HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.



During the week from April 8 to 12, 2019:

On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the peso appreciated towards 18.84 due to better perspectives around the US-China trade relationship, higher oil prices, and the dollar’s weakness in the international market because of negative US economic data and a Fed’s more “dovish” stance. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit limited the peso’s appreciation. On Thursday , the peso depreciated slightly towards 18.86 following positive US economic data, global economic slowdown fears, and a feebler outlook for economic growth in Mexico. On Friday ,the peso appreciated towards 18.76 because of greater optimism around global economic growth after the publication of positive Chinese economic data.

From April 15 to 19, we expect a relatively stable peso due to Easter week, although mainly moved by the US-China trade negotiation, global economic data (US, China and the Eurozone) and oil prices.

We expect a peso trading…


In March 2019, the peso traded between 18.74-19.62 USD/MXN and averaged 19.25

During 5-7 March, the peso was depreciateded to 19.62 due to increased demand for dollars as a refuge asset in the face of a clear global economic slowdown. During March 8-20, the peso appreciated due to higher oil prices, positive comments from Trump regarding trade negotiations with China, negative economic data from the US, a more "dovish" stance in the Fed's monetary policy and comments by Jerome Powell about keeping the reference rate unchanged during 2019. Towards the end of the month, the peso depreciated against a greater probability of a global economic slowdown, Trump threats about closing the border with Mexico and taking profits from the peso.

In April 2019, we expect a peso/dollar exchange rate trading in a range... ...



Global: In 2019 global economic activity will slow down due to a lower growth of exports and the manufacturing sector.

LATAM: Colombia and Chile’s domestic demand upheld their dynamism, Argentina and Venezuela in recession, and the political situation in Brazil complicates (pension reform).

US: The economy will slow to 2.1% annually in 2019 (vs. 2.9% 2018) amid a feebler consumption and industrial production due to the global economic slowdown and the US-China trade war. Amid this, the still low interest rates won’t have a lot of room to decrease in the 2020 significant economic slowdown.

Mexico: During 2019 we estimate that the Mexican economy will slow down due to a contraction in investment, a slight deceleration in consumption due to high interest rates, and lower growth in employment and remittances, and the continued weakness in industrial production.

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