HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.

RECENT REPORTS

WEEKLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR


During the week from July 30 to August 3, 2018:

On Monday, the Mexican peso appreciated to 18.54 USD/MXN mainly due to an increase in oil prices, and positive comments from Wilbur Ross (US Secretary of Commerce) about NAFTA. On Tuesday, the peso depreciated to 18.63 pesos/dollar due to a stronger dollar amid the euro’s weakness. The above after the Eurozone’s Q2 GDP registered an economic slowdown. On Wednesday and Thusrday, the peso lateralized due to mixed factors, among those who stood out: the dollar strengthening amid a more restrictive tone in the Fed’s minutes vs. a peso supported by NAFTA’s positive expectations due to the restart of negotiations on Thursdays. On Friday, the Aztec currency appreciated to 18.56 USD/MXN because of a depreciated dollar due to weaker than expected US non farm payrolls.


From August 6 to 10, we expect a peso with an appreciatory trend amid positive NAFTA statements, ending the week with a depreciation due to higher US inflation, trading around…

MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

During July 2018, the peso traded between 18.53-20.20 USD/MXN and averaged 19.01

During most of July, the peso tended to appreciate due to the following factors: positive signals from AMLO regarding the business sector and the BANXICO's autonomy, positive comments from US and Mexican officials regarding NAFTA, lower trade risk between the US and the European Union, and higher oil prices.

In August 2018 , we expect a peso/dollar exchange rate with a sideways trend in a range ...

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Global: US-EU reached a trade truce. China’s, the Eurozone’s and Japan’s economic indicators continue to slowdown.
LATAM: Economic growth tumbled in Argentina and Brazil amid temporary factors, meanwhile Chile and Colombia continue with their upward trend, although risks remain forward.

US:: economic growth will continue to be driven by consumption given a tight labor market. Nevertheless, a slowdown in export growth (strong dollar and protectionism), higher price pressures, and interest rates on the rise could limit economic growth.

Mexico: in 2018 the Mexican economy will be driven mainly by domestic consumption and the services sector. However, a stagnation of the industrial production, high interest rates, high energy costs that will pressure inflation, and the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA and AMLO will limit its economic growth.

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    Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables.

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  • Exchange Rate Monitor

    Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios.

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