HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.

RECENT REPORTS

WEEKLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR


During the week from February 4 to February 8, 2019:

On Monday, the Mexican market remained closed due to a Mexican Constitution holiday. On Tuesday, the peso appreciated towards 19.05 awaiting Trump’s speech to Congress and AMLO statements regarding Pemex tax cuts. On Wednesday and Thursday, the peso depreciated to 19.14 due to greater risk aversion given Trump’s negative comments about a trade agreement with China. Likewise, the peso’s depreciation was supported by concerns about the Mexican economy after Banxico’s governor statements, positive US employment data and lower oil prices. On Friday, the peso appreciated to 19.06 since Banxico did not rule out the possibility of further increases in its interest rate during the year, and higher oil prices.


From February 11 to 15, we expect a volatile peso depreciated amid global economic slowdown fears and global trade tensions, although appreciated by Trump’s threats to close the US government again and US negative economic data.
We expect a peso trading…

MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

In January 2019, the peso traded between 18.88-19.72 USD/MXN and averaged 19.18

During January 1-16, the peso appreciated to 18.88 due to positive statements from Trump regarding the trade relationship with China, a less restrictive Fed stance, higher oil prices, the US government shutdown, and a higher investor confidence in AMLO. During the second half of the month, the peso volatilized and depreciated amid fears of a global economic slowdown, lower oil prices and Pemex credit downgrade from Fitch. However, appreciative forces due to the US government shutdown were also evident.

In February 2019, we expect a peso/dollar exchange rate trading in a range... ...

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2019

Global: In 2019 global economic growth will moderate due to a slowdown in the manufacturing
sector.

LATAM: Brazil and Colombia driven by structural reforms, Argentina and Venezuela with political
and economic uncertainty, while the Chilean economy will continue to expand.

US: Economic growth in 2018 was driven by domestic consumption and industrial production.
However, by 2019, the risk caused by rising interest rates (increase in the cost of debt) and the trade war with China will reduce economic growth.

Mexico: During 2019, the Mexican economy will slow down due to lower growth in consumption, investment, and higher country risk. In turn, a gasoline shortage (and other products) will drive a further slowdown in economic activity in Q1 2019.

  • Economic Outlook

    Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables.

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  • Mexican States’ Economic Outlook

    This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year.

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  • Exchange Rate Monitor

    Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios.

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  • Energy Outlook

    This report presents monthly national projections for the current and next year and annual projections for the next 5 years of the prices of the Mexico’s main energy sources, such as gasoline (Regular and Premium) and Diesel, LP Gas, Natural Gas, High and Medium VoltageElectricity, and oil prices (Mexican Mix and WTI). Additionally, a report is sent in an executive format explaining the energy prices’ recent evolution and supporting our projections.

    For further information click on our services.