HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.

RECENT REPORTS

WEEKLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

During June 16 to 23 the peso depreciated slightly going from 17.91 to 17.99 pesos/dollar. During the first three days of the week the peso depreciated to 18.29 amid a decline in oil prices, as well as a stronger dollar due to positive statements of the US economy by FED members. On Thursday, the Aztec currency bolstered to 18.05 after BANXICO raised its benchmark interest rate to 7.0%, along with a recovery in oil prices. Finally, on Friday, the Mexican peso continued to appreciate until 17.99 following lower-than-expected US data.
During next week (June 23 to 30),...

MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

During the month of April , the peso traded between 18.45-19.30 USD/MXN.
Throughout the first part of the month, the peso remained relatively stable (18.67-18.83). During the second half of the month, the peso appreciated to 18.51 amid weak US figures that raise expectations of a more gradual cycle of 2017 interest rate hikes. Afterwards, the peso depreciated to 19.21 due to a fall in oil prices, Trump's statements to push for far-reaching changes to NAFTA and previous speculation about his fiscal plan. Finally, the peso appreciated to 18.87 after Trump declared to be willing to maintain the NAFTA renegotiation process, the fiscal plan’s proposal didn’t include BAT and weak US Q1 economic growth.
During 2017,...

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

China: Economy surprises with growth induced by heavy public lending.
Japan: Economy driven by strong external demand although weakened by feeble domestic demand.
Eurozone: Strong domestic demand accelerates the Eurozone’s recovery in spite of economic and political uncertainty.
LATAM: Argentina and Brazil's economic outlook improves.
US: GDP grows at its slowest pace in 3 years amid a drag on consumption. However, business investment, industrial activity and exports continue to expand. In this context, greater growth is expected for the remainder of 2017, nonetheless, uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could cloud its outlook.
Mexico: Mexican economy increases 2.7% YoY in Q1; Exports linked 5th month rising; Domestic consumption shows signs of slowing down and industrial activity continues contracting affected by a continued fall in the extraction of oil and gas.

  • Economic Outlook

    Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables. For further information click on our services.

  • Mexican States’ Economic Outlook

    This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year. For further information click on our services.

  • Exchange Rate Monitor

    Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios. For further information click on our services.