HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.
During October 27 to November 3 On Monday, the peso depreciated to 19.25 due to the Fitch rating agency comments on higher uncertainty and risks around NAFTA, as well as the investigation results on the Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Mexican currency appreciated towards 19.13 due to a profit taking. On Thursday, the peso recovered after the Jerome Powell nomination as the next FED’s president, which increased expectations of a more gradual cycle of interest rates hikes. Finally, on Friday the peso depreciated to 19.16 after the publication of US positive figures and progress in the Congress negotiations aimed at achieving approval of the fiscal stimulus package.
During next week (November 3 to 10)...
During the month of October, The peso traded between 18.14-19.33 pesos/dollar. During the first part of October, the peso depreciated to 18.74 amid positive US data and increased expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy due to the uncertainty produced by the new FED’s president. Then the peso depreciated to 19.08 due to NAFTA and an increase in expectations of interest rate hikes. In the second half of the month the peso appreciated to 18.81 due to weak US data in the construction sector and greater optimism due to the extension of NAFTA renegotiations. At the end of the month, the peso depreciated as a result of S&P's reassessment of Mexico's credit rating foreseeing an exit from NAFTA towards 19.25.
Global: China's economy slows down gradually, while Japan and the Eurozone continue to expand due to an improvement in the manufacturing sector and higher consumer confidence.
LATAM:Brazil and Argentina show signs of recovery, while Colombia and Chile slow down.
US:: GDP crushed estimates during Q3 despite disruptions caused by hurricanes in some states of the Gulf Coast in late August and September. Also a greater dynamism in some sectors of the economy signals a greater consolidation of the domestic market and a boost in economic activity for the remainder of 2017 and during 2018.
Mexico:The Q3 GDP slowed down in light of lower growth in secondary and tertiary activities. In the remainder of the year we expect weak economic growth amid a contraction in investment and industrial activity, a slowdown in consumption, a depreciation in the exchange rate and higher uncertainty around NAFTA’s renegotiation and the presidential elections.
Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables. For further information click on our services.
Mexican States’ Economic Outlook
This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year. For further information click on our services.
Exchange Rate Monitor
Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios. For further information click on our services.