HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.
During October 6 to 13 From Monday to Thursday, the peso depreciated to 18.75 amid Trump's statements about building a border wall in exchange for concessions on the migration issue related to dreamers, and uncertainty over NAFTA's fourth round of renegotiations in Washington . Finally, on Friday, the peso depreciated to 18.94 after the US formally demanded a higher US and regional content for autos and trucks within NAFTA talks, and after better-than-expected US economic figures that strengthened the dollar.
During next week (October 13 to 20)...
During the month of September, The peso traded between 17.61-18.30 pesos/dollar.
During the first part of September the peso depreciated to 17.90 amid the statement about the termination of DACA migratory program and an increase in geopolitical tensions between EU-North Korea. Then, the expectation of a more gradual monetary policy and higher oil prices appreciated the peso to 17.66. In the second half of the month the peso depreciated to 17.88 due to an increase in tensions between EU-North Korea and expectations of a rise in the interest rate by a reduction of debt assets announcement. In the end of the month the peso depreciated to 18.18 due to Yellen's statements that reinforce expectations of rising the interest rate and uncertainty about its replacement.
China: the Chinese economy will continue slowing down amid the imposition of financial controls and the real estate sector's cooling.
Japan: Q2 economic growth is revised downwards, while Q3 shows signs of further expansion.
Eurozone: solid economic recovery reinforces expectations that the ECB will reduce its monetary stimulus in 2018.
LATAM:Brazil and Argentina show signs of recovery, while Colombia and Chile slow down.
US: Major economic indicators point to a limited GDP growth for Q3 since Hurricane Harvey and Irma hurt key economic areas, however, a recovery is expected for Q4 amid further reconstruction work, consolidation of the domestic market, as well as further clarification on Trump's pro-growth policies.
Mexico:The Mexican economy began to slowdown in Q3 due to the persistent weakness in consumption and industrial activity. The impact of the earthquakes is likely to worsen the manufacturing and services sectors, however, the effect will be offset by an expansion in auto exports due to a temporal increase in US demand driven by Harvey and Irma.
Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables. For further information click on our services.
Mexican States’ Economic Outlook
This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year. For further information click on our services.
Exchange Rate Monitor
Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios. For further information click on our services.