HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.

RECENT REPORTS

WEEKLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR


During the week from April 8 to 12, 2019:

On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the peso appreciated towards 18.84 due to better perspectives around the US-China trade relationship, higher oil prices, and the dollar’s weakness in the international market because of negative US economic data and a Fed’s more “dovish” stance. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit limited the peso’s appreciation. On Thursday , the peso depreciated slightly towards 18.86 following positive US economic data, global economic slowdown fears, and a feebler outlook for economic growth in Mexico. On Friday ,the peso appreciated towards 18.76 because of greater optimism around global economic growth after the publication of positive Chinese economic data.


From April 15 to 19, we expect a relatively stable peso due to Easter week, although mainly moved by the US-China trade negotiation, global economic data (US, China and the Eurozone) and oil prices.


We expect a peso trading…

MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

In March 2019, the peso traded between 18.74-19.62 USD/MXN and averaged 19.25


During 5-7 March, the peso was depreciateded to 19.62 due to increased demand for dollars as a refuge asset in the face of a clear global economic slowdown. During March 8-20, the peso appreciated due to higher oil prices, positive comments from Trump regarding trade negotiations with China, negative economic data from the US, a more "dovish" stance in the Fed's monetary policy and comments by Jerome Powell about keeping the reference rate unchanged during 2019. Towards the end of the month, the peso depreciated against a greater probability of a global economic slowdown, Trump threats about closing the border with Mexico and taking profits from the peso.


In April 2019, we expect a peso/dollar exchange rate trading in a range... ...

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK APRIL 2019

Global: In 2019 global economic activity will slow down due to a lower growth of exports and the manufacturing sector.

LATAM: Colombia and Chile’s domestic demand upheld their dynamism, Argentina and Venezuela in recession, and the political situation in Brazil complicates (pension reform).

US: The economy will slow to 2.1% annually in 2019 (vs. 2.9% 2018) amid a feebler consumption and industrial production due to the global economic slowdown and the US-China trade war. Amid this, the still low interest rates won’t have a lot of room to decrease in the 2020 significant economic slowdown.

Mexico: During 2019 we estimate that the Mexican economy will slow down due to a contraction in investment, a slight deceleration in consumption due to high interest rates, and lower growth in employment and remittances, and the continued weakness in industrial production.

  • Economic Outlook

    Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables.

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  • Mexican States’ Economic Outlook

    This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year.

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    Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios.

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  • Energy Outlook

    This report presents monthly national projections for the current and next year and annual projections for the next 5 years of the prices of the Mexico’s main energy sources, such as gasoline (Regular and Premium) and Diesel, LP Gas, Natural Gas, High and Medium VoltageElectricity, and oil prices (Mexican Mix and WTI). Additionally, a report is sent in an executive format explaining the energy prices’ recent evolution and supporting our projections.

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