HARBOR intelligence is a consulting firm with over 20 years of experience in generating economic intelligence to improve decision making.

RECENT REPORTS

WEEKLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

During August 4 to 11 On Monday, the peso depreciated to 17.95 amid a rebound in the dollar and weak oil prices. The peso appreciated to 17.87 on Tuesday following FED members’ statements. On Wednesday, the peso depreciated to 17.97 due to a higher risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea
Finally, the last two days of the week, the Aztec currency appreciated to 17.81 USD/MXN on Friday in view of a weakened dollar by a lower-than-expected US inflation growth, statements by US FED members that suggested the FED will continue applying a gradualist monetary policy, Fitch statements regarding a more positive stance toward Mexico in the NAFTA negotiation.
During next week (August 11 to 18),...

MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE MONITOR

During the month of June , the peso traded between 17.79-18.74 USD/MXN.
During the first part of the month, the peso appreciated to 17.91 against higher oil prices, the Mexican government initiated steps to cover oil and an increase in confidence about the renegotiation of NAFTA. During the second half of the month, the peso depreciated to 18.29 after oil prices plunged due to an increase in oil production in Lybia and Nigeria, as well as dollar strength following positive statements from FED members. Then, the peso appreciated to 17.87 against an increase in BANXICO’s benchmark interest rate, a recovery in oil prices and weak US data. Finally, the peso depreciated to 18.20 amid an upward revision of US GDP and an IMF reduction of the US growth forecast.
During 2017,...

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

China: economy surprises after growing 6.9% YoY during 2017’s second quarter.
Japan: economy driven by a recovery in domestic demand, although abated by a weak manufacturing sector.
Eurozone: loses momentum after a slight slowdown of the manufacturing sector, but continues with its modest recovery.
LATAM:Argentina and Brazil continue recovering, while the industrial production diminishes Colombia and Chile’s economic outlook.
US: GDP in Q2 grew more than Q1 due to an improvement in consumption and industrial production, however, inflation remained weak, wage growth remained low and the real estate sector slackened. This, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Trump's fiscal and trade policies, could limit its economic growth for the remainder of the year.
Mexico:the economy grew more than expected during 2017 Q2 amid an improvement in consumption, as well as a rebound in the manufacturing sector and exports. However, the continued decline in investment and lower consumption growth for the rest of the year could burden the country’s economic expansion.

  • Economic Outlook

    Edited in spanish and english in a monthly basis. It analyzes in an executive format the economic environment’s recent evolution and perspectives. The report presents an annual projection of forty major macroeconomic variables in Mexico and the US for the current year and the next five years, as well as monthly forecasts for this year and the next of variables such as medium and high voltage electricity and gasoline prices. In a report entitled “What is behind the numbers” we explain the economic and political assumptions behind each of our scenarios and macroeconomic variables. For further information click on our services.

  • Mexican States’ Economic Outlook

    This monthly report presents Mexico’s macroeconomic prospects for each State of the country. Each State’s GDP and the GDP for 19 sectors and 10 economic branches are estimated on a yearly basis, as well as 19 additional economic variables such as employment, wage bill, retail sales, industrial production, among others, on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, depending on their availability, for the current and following year. For further information click on our services.

  • Exchange Rate Monitor

    Edited in spanish and english in a weekly and monthly basis. It analyzes in depth (technical and fundamental analysis) the factors that are expected to affect the exchange rate’s behavior in the current week, month and the rest of the year. Provides monthly forecasts for the current and next year and an annual outlook (end of period and average) for the next 5 years, all under three scenarios. For further information click on our services.